What one political scientist thinks about the federal election in Manitoba


As Manitobans wait for the polls to close for the federal election, one political scientist is weighing in on what could happen in the province.

Christopher Adams, who is an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, thinks some ridings may be too close to call by the end of the night.

“I think there will be some ridings in Manitoba, particularly in Winnipeg that will go into tomorrow when they start counting the mail-in ballots,” said Adams.

Once the votes start to be counted, Adams said out of the 14 ridings in the province, there are a few that he has his eyes on.

“The most important I think is Winnipeg South. The voters have always put Winnipeg South onto the government’s side with each election and that goes back to 1984.”

He said Winnipeg South represents several groups in the area such as new Canadians and university students.

Adams added the other riding to be aware of inside Winnipeg is Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley.

“That constituency on the western side of the city has a blend of suburbia plus the city itself.”

That riding is currently held by Marty Morantz of the Conservatives who took the seat from Doug Eyolfson of the Liberals in 2019.

Another riding in Winnipeg Adams mentioned is Winnipeg North, noting it could be a battle between the Liberals and NDP.

Outside of Winnipeg, Adams is suggesting people look north to the riding of Churchill-Keewatinook Aski. It is currently held by Niki Ashton of the NDP, but he said it’s possible there could be a new MP.

“Shirley Robinson has been endorsed by the head of the Assembly of Manitoba Chiefs, Arlen Dumas, and Shirley Robinson is a First Nations woman from one of the band councils. So that could be an upset as well.”

Adams was also asked what role the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) could play in Manitoba in deciding candidates.

He said the ridings that are Conservative strongholds could see some votes go toward the PPC, but he doesn’t think any candidates will be heading to parliament from the PPC.

“I do think where the PPC might have an impact is the suburban ridings, like the Headingley area or the St. Norbert area, where they might take a bite out of the Conservative support.”

Adams said some of the ridings in the province may not be completely known until Tuesday which is when the mail-in ballots will be counted.

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