COVID-19 in Canada: Latest national modelling to project pandemic’s path

OTTAWA — As many provinces are experiencing a third wave of COVID-19 infections and a growing spread of variants of concern, federal public health officials will be providing updated projections on where the pandemic is headed in Canada.

The March 26 modelling presentation from Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam and Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Howard Njoo showed that Canada was set to see a “strong resurgence” of COVID-19 cases across the country if the more transmissible variants continued to spread and become more commonplace, and if public health measures remained at then-current levels.

The last long-range projection indicated that, even if Canadians maintained the current number of people they come into contact with each day, COVID-19 cases were set to spike to levels not yet experienced during this pandemic.

The March modelling showed that the number and proportion of variant-of-concern cases was “increasing rapidly” in several parts of Canada, and that the experience internationally demonstrated that stronger public health measures were needed if Canada wants to control the spread of these more contagious strains of the virus.

The Public Health Agency of Canada’s projections in March estimated that Canada would hit between 973,080 to 1,005,020 cases, and between 22,875 to 23,315 cumulative deaths by April 4.

As of Friday, 23,822 people have died from COVID-19 since the start of the pandemic, and there have been a total of 1,155,837 cases reported.

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