Trudeau’s 2024: Did the PM become less popular this year?
When Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned from cabinet just hours before she was slated to deliver the fall economic statement, a difficult year—if not the most difficult—in Justin Trudeau’s political career became even more challenging.
In 2024, his minority government faced several non-confidence motions in parliament; his Liberal Party trailed the Conservatives by a fair margin in the polls; and his personal brand sunk to an all-time low.
Though the polls haven’t yet fully captured Canadians’ reactions to Freeland’s departure, Nik Nanos, CTV News pollster and Nanos Research Chair, says Trudeau’s 2024 leadership numbers are already at their worst in his tenure as prime minister.
“In the past year he’s registered his lowest scores as a leader,” Nanos said. “Scores that are lower than back in 2015 when the Conservatives were attacking him about, you know, not being up to the job and having nice hair.”
Source: Nanos Research
The dotted line in the above chart shows the percentage of people who agree Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader.
The solid line below shows the percentage of people who rank the Liberal Party as their top choice on the ballot.
Both trend lines have fluctuated throughout the year but have remained steadily below where they were in summer 2023.
And over that time, Trudeau’s slump has been mirrored by a jump in Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre’s numbers — and since the fall of last year, more people have viewed Poilievre as having the qualities of a good leader.
Source: Nanos Research
‘Half as tall, politically’
The recent dip to new lows is part of a long, dwindling path that started almost a decade ago with Trudeau enjoying support from a large majority of people.
Back in 2015, polling showed people had similar opinions about Trudeau and Prime Minister Stephen Harper during that year’s federal election campaign.
After a sweeping Liberal victory, Trudeau’s image was boosted to new heights, with over 70 per cent of Canadians agreeing he had the qualities of a good leader.
Over the past decade, that number has declined to about half of what it was.
“He’s gone down from seven out of every 10 Canadians to now basically, on any given day, about four out of every 10 Canadians,” said Nanos.
“So, he’s about half as tall politically as he was, at his best.”
Source: Nanos Research
The trend lines for Trudeau and Liberal Party support have a similar shape — a gradual decline to about half of their respective high points.
One notable split between the two, Nanos said, was during the pandemic in 2020, when polling on Trudeau’s leadership jumped back up past 60 per cent.
“During the pandemic, when the Liberals were working with the federal provinces and pushing stuff out the door and trying to deal with that, his personal brand actually kind of spiked in a positive way.”
Source: Nanos Research
A bounce back?
The polls show a four-week rolling average, so it will take some time to fully reflect the effects of Freeland’s departure, Nanos said.
With their numbers already at a low point with the potential to slide even further down, can the Liberals pull themselves back up in the standings in time for a 2025 election?
If they do, Nanos said, it probably won’t be a result of Trudeau doing something right.
“If he does well in the election, it’s probably more a result of the Conservatives doing something really wrong,” Nanos said. “His destiny is in the hands of Pierre Polievre — he’s no longer master of his own political destiny.”
Nanos said that has a lot to do with the fact that Trudeau’s simply been in power for the better part of 10 years.
Harper before him lasted from 2006 to 2015, and before that, between Jean Chretian and Paul Martin, the Liberals governed from 1993 to 2006.
“What’s clear is that, at least in this environment, there’s a best-before date in Canada for prime ministers,” Nanos said.
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