Ontario health officials have released projection data indicating the only way to flatten the surge of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations is a six-week stay-at-home order and at least 100,000 doses of vaccine administered a day.
According to the documents released Friday, there has been a 67 per cent growth in hospitalizations related to the virus and a 51 per cent growth in ICU occupancy.
Officials noted under every scenario, more vaccinations mean a faster resolution to the COVID-19 crisis in the long run.
The documents also indicated “without stronger system-level measures and immediate support for essential workers and high-risk communities, high case rates will persist through the summer.”
The documents also showed that Ontarians mobility has declined slightly but is not enough to bring the current growth of infection under control.
“Further reducing mobility and always wearing a mask and distancing is how Ontarians help reduce cases,” officials wrote in the documents.
Although variant cases, such as the B.1.1.7 first identified in the United Kingdom, now dominate and continue to rise the original COVID-19 strain is also rising, officials noted.
On Friday, Ontario reported a record-breaking 4,812 new COVID-19 cases surpassing Thursday’s previous single-day record of 4,736. In the past seven days, five of those saw daily case numbers above 4,000.
Ontario also reported a record 1,955 people are hospitalized with COVID-19 with an all-time high of 701 patients in intensive care units and 480 patients in ICUs on a ventilator.
The province’s science advisory co-chair Dr. Adalsteinn Brown, who also presented the modelling data, said ICU occupancy from the second wave never had the chance to empty out again by the time the third wave hit.
“We’re now filling up our intensive care units on top of what was still there following the second wave and this is one of the reasons that we are in such jeopardy.”
In Friday’s update, a total of 3,644,038 COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered. That marks an increase of 115,634 vaccines in the last day which is the most vaccine administered in 24 hours. There are 341,933 people fully vaccinated with two doses.
— More to come.
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