Ontario releasing new COVID-19 modelling data as cases soar

TORONTO — Members of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table are expected to present updated modelling on the province’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic Friday afternoon.

Sources tell CTV News Toronto and CP24 on Thursday that the latest data shows that Ontario could see 12,000 to 18,000 new daily infections by the end of May, with up to 1,800 patients with the disease in the province’s intensive care units (ICU).

CTVNewsToronto.ca will stream the news conference live at 1 p.m.

The last modelling data was released on April 1 and indicated that COVID-19 ICU admissions in Ontario will likely reach 800 by the end of the month.

At the time, members of the science table said that the province would not be able to control the third wave of the pandemic without both a provincewide shutdown and stay-at-home order. If no further public health measures are implemented, daily case counts could rise to 6,000 by the end of April.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford later announced a provincewide shutdown, but did not implement a stay-at-home order for another week.

On Thursday, Associate Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe said that Ontario’s “situation is dire” and that the province’s “data is alarming.”

“I have been providing updates to Ontarians for over a year now and at some of the previous press conferences I referred to the situation as worrisome and even scary. What is truly scary is when I used those words before our rates and trends were nowhere near where we find ourselves today.”

Sources have confirmed to CTV News Toronto that the Ford government is actively considering stricter measures as the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations continue to climb.

Measures being considered include shutting down all non-critical infrastructure construction projects, putting limits on non-essential manufacturing and warehousing and additional restrictions on religious services.

A provincewide curfew is also under consideration, sources say.

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