Ontario PCs have strong lead less than 3 months from election day: Ipsos poll

The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario is in the driver’s seat with the province less than three months away from election day according to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News.

If the election were held tomorrow, the Ontario PC Party under Doug Ford would get 38 per cent of the decided popular vote, followed by the Liberals led by Steven Del Duca at 28 per cent, Ipsos’ poll indicated.

The NDP, led by Andrea Horwath, would get 24 per cent, with the Green Party getting four per cent.

Poll results also show that five per cent of respondents would vote for another party, while 13 per cent remain undecided.

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Seven per cent of those surveyed indicated they would not vote.

Overall, the PCs are favoured among both men and women, though more so among men.

Of those aged 55 and older, the poll showed the PCs are well ahead with 52 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 26 per cent, NDP at 15 per cent, Green Party at two per cent, and other parties at six per cent.

Among those aged 35 to 54, the PCs and Liberals are tied at 32 per cent, followed by the NDP at 27 per cent, Green Party at six per cent and other parties at four per cent.

For those aged 18 to 34, 37 per cent indicated support for the NDP, followed by the Liberals at 27 per cent, PCs at 23 per cent, Green Party at seven per cent, and other parties at five per cent.

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The poll also showed that 50 per cent of Ontarians approve of the PC’s performance, with 12 per cent indicating they strongly approve and 38 per cent somewhat approve. Fifty per cent disapprove, while 24 per cent strongly disapprove and 26 per cent somewhat disapprove.

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The polling showed that 42 per cent of Ontarians believe that the Ford government deserves to be re-elected, “a figure which typically tracks very closely to the proportion of the vote the incumbent receives on election night – a proportion which would yield a second majority government for the Progressive Conservatives,” Ipsos said.

Fifty-eight per cent believe another party should be elected.

PCs have strong support in 905

Ipsos also indicated that the PCs have a “commanding lead” in the “ever-important 905 swing region of the GTA.”

There, the PCs are at 51 per cent, followed by the Liberals at 25 per cent, NDP at 16 per cent, Green Party at six per cent and other parties at two per cent.

“A lead of this size in the 905 would assure the Tories re-election,” Ipsos said.

Other areas in the province break down as follows:


  • PC: 34 per cent
  • Liberal: 29 per cent
  • NDP: 26 per cent
  • Green Party: five per cent
  • Others: six per cent

Southwest Ontario

  • NDP: 34 per cent
  • PC: 30 per cent
  • Liberal: 29 per cent
  • Green Party: three per cent
  • Others: four per cent
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Central Ontario

  • PC: 34 per cent
  • Liberal: 32 per cent
  • NDP: 20 per cent
  • Other parties: 14 per cent

Eastern Ontario

  • PC: 34 per cent
  • Liberal: 34 per cent
  • NDP: 25 per cent
  • Green Party: four per cent
  • Other parties: three per cent

Northern Ontario

  • PC: 36 per cent
  • NDP: 22 per cent
  • Liberal: 21 per cent
  • Green Party: six per cent
  • Other parties: 15 per cent

Pick a Premier

Respondents were also asked who they thought would make the best premier for Ontario.

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According to the survey, 43 per cent said they believe Ford would make the best premier.

Meanwhile, 34 per cent of those surveyed said Horwath would make the best premier, while 22 per cent said Del Duca would be the best leader for the province.

The results showed that Ford had the most support among those aged 55-plus, with 58 per cent saying he would be the best premier, while Horwath was the preferred choice for adults aged 18 to 34, with 46 per cent saying she would make the best leader.

The poll found that Ford and Horwath were tied for support from those between 35 and 54 years old, with 39 per cent support each. Del Duca support lagged behind at 22 per cent.

METHODOLOGY: This Ipsos poll was conducted between March 11 and 15, 2022 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of n=850 Ontarians aged 18+ was interviewed online. Quotas and weighting were employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample’s composition reflects that of the population according to census information. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ± 3.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would be had all Ontarians been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.


© 2022 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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