New Ontario COVID-19 modelling data expected on Monday

TORONTO — Ontario health officials are expected to release updating modelling on the province’s ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic late Monday morning.

The data will be provided by Associate Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe and Co-Chair of the Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table Dr. Adalsteinn Brown.

The modelling is expected to be released just before Ontario Premier Doug Ford announces a province-wide lockdown, set to go into effect on Christmas Eve.

For the past six days, Ontario has logged more than 2,000 daily COVID-19 infections and surpassed milestones in total deaths and cases since the beginning of the pandemic.

According to sources, the decision was made based on modelling showing that under any scenario, Ontario would see 300 people in intensive care by the end of December.

At the current rate of transmission, that number would grow to 700 patients by the end of January.

The province has said that once the number of COVID-19 patients in Ontario’s intensive care units (ICU) surpasses 300 supporting other medical needs not related to the disease becomes nearly impossible.

At the current rate of transmission, the number of new COVID-19 cases would grow to 10,000 per day, the sources said.

Two weeks ago, health officials warned that if infections were to grow at a rate of three per cent over the next month, Ontario could see roughly 5,000 daily cases of COVID-19.

The total number of lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ontario now stands at 155,930, including deaths and recoveries.

CTV News Toronto will stream the news conference live at 11 a.m.

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