Liberals have 12-point lead over Tories in GTA but race is closer in the 905, Nanos poll finds

TORONTO — The Liberals have a 12-point lead over the Tories in the City of Toronto but the race appears to be a lot closer in the rest of the GTA, a new poll suggests.

The Nanos Research survey of 502 adults, commissioned by CTV News and CP24, found that 44 per cent of decided voters in Toronto are backing the Liberal party compared to 32 per cent for the Conservatives and 19 per cent for the NDP. The Green Party and the People’s Party of Canada had the support of two per cent and three per cent of decided voters, respectively.

About 13 per cent of respondents in Toronto remain undecided about who they will vote for.

Meanwhile, in the so-called 905 region surrounding the city, the race appears to be much tighter.

The poll suggests that the Liberals still have the support of about 41 per cent of decided voters but the Tories are a closer second with the support of 33 per cent of decided voters. The NDP are a distant third in the 905 with the support of 15 per cent of decided voters.

905 poll

The 905 region has been hotly contested in the past, but in the 2019 election the Liberals won all five seats in Brampton and all eight seats in Mississauga en route to forming a minority government. The Conservatives won a handful of seats in the suburbs north of Toronto in 2019 but ultimately did not make enough inroads in the region to change their electoral fortunes.

About 10 per cent of prospective voters in the 905 remain undecided with three weeks still to go in the campaign, according to the poll.


The leader favourability ratings, meanwhile, largely mirror the overall race in the GTA.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau was the most liked leader in the GTA with 38.1 per cent of respondents identifying him as their top choice. That is compared to 28.4 per cent for Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole and 15.9 per cent for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

Preferred prime minister

Singh performed better when respondents were asked whether each leader had “the qualities to be a good political leader.” About 59 per cent answered in the affirmative for Singh compared to 56 per cent for Trudeau and 44 per cent for O’Toole.


This report is comprised of data from the last eight days of the campaign for 502 voters in the GTA between August 22 and August 29, 2021. The margin of error for a survey of 502 respondents is ±4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2016 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

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