Ottawa home prices to rise 17% in final quarter of 2021, Royal LePage forecasts

Housing prices in Ottawa are expected to grow even more rapidly than first thought in the final months of 2021, outpacing the national average, according to a recent forecast from Royal LePage.

The real estate services firm said Ottawa aggregate home prices in the fourth quarter of the year are expected to rise to $738,200, an increase of 17 per cent year-over-year. That’s up from Royal LePage’s previous forecast in April, which estimated Q4 price hikes of 14 per cent.

The only market set for more rapid growth is the Greater Montreal area, pegged at a 17.5 per cent increase.

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Nationally, aggregate home prices are expected to rise 16 per cent in the fourth quarter to $771,500.

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The forecast comes even as Ottawa’s housing market shows signs of cooling.

Jason Ralph, managing partner at Royal LePage Team Realty, said in a statement this week that homes in Ottawa are spending more time on the market and inventory is increasing, shifting market dynamics towards the buyers.

His comments echoed observations from the Ottawa Real Estate Board earlier this month, which pointed to early signs of “normalization” in the city’s red-hot housing market.

Read more: Ottawa housing market showed signs of stabilizing in June, real estate board says

“But demand remains high and I don’t expect we’ll be in a balanced market any time soon,” Ralph said.

The second quarter of 2021 saw Ottawa home prices continue to rise, especially in the detached market. The median price of a single-family detached home rose 31.2 per cent year-over-year to $846,250 in the quarter, according to Royal LePage, while condo prices rose 16.9 per cent to $421,000 in the same period.

Ralph said he expects a busy fall in the nation’s capital with an influx of inventory coming to the market through the summer. Prospective buyers stymied by bidding wars now could well find options later in the year, he suggested.

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