One climatologist says Canada just had the warmest winter in 77 years. What does that mean for spring?

March 17, 2024 Canuck

Despite unseasonably high temperatures, the start of spring is bound to bring some snow, showers and sunshine with it, one climatologist says.

A seasonal forecast published by the government of Canada on February 28 suggests that Toronto will experience a warmer than usual spring, with there being a 77 per cent chance of temperatures higher than normal.

There is a 19 per cent chance that temperatures in Toronto will be seasonably normal, according to the forecast, and a four per cent chance of temperatures being lower than normal. The average temperature in Toronto in March, April and May ranges between -3 C and 9 C.

“One season doesn’t really give you a clue to the next season,” Senior Climatologist David Phillips said to CP24. “But there is a connection between what kind of winter you have and then of course how the spring goes.”

Phillips said that because Canada, on average, had its warmest winter in 77 years, the transition into spring will be easier.

“You’ve got to get rid of the winter – the look and the feel of winter and the snow, the cold and frozen ground, the ice and the rivers and the lakes – and when you get rid of that, then it feels more like spring.”

Over the winter, Toronto set two new temperature records and received minimal amounts of snow.

On March 4, the mercury climbed to almost 16 C, breaking a 50-year-old temperature record that was set at 13. 3 C.

“Our winter was historically more mild, record-breaking by a long shot,” Phillips said. “Our spring forecast is continuing that way, and so is our summer.”

Phillips said that El Nino – a climate pattern that warms ocean surface temperatures – is dying, but will still hang on into the spring and summer.

However, he says that some colder days are still expected.

“[Spring] is in between,” he said. “You can have weather bombs and nor’easterners and the first hurricane [of the season], so you know, that is the very nature of what that spring period it.”

This week, Spring will start on Tuesday with a chance of flurries on Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a couple of sunnier days with cloudy periods.

Monday is forecast to have a high of 4 C, with a low of minus 1 C. Tuesday is calling for a high of 3 C and low of 0 C, with a 64 per cent chance of flurries in the morning and into the afternoon before possibly switching to rain. Wednesday will have a high of 2 C and low of -5 C, with the colder temperatures carrying into Thursday when there will be a high of -2 C and low of -6 C. Friday should warm up a little bit more with sunny breaks amid a high of 4 C and low of 0 C.

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