Researchers using AI models say the North is susceptible to severe droughts in decades ahead
Canada’s North could see some of the most severe drought conditions in the country over the coming decades, according to a new study that used artificial intelligence and historical data to map future drought zones.
Researchers from the University of Ottawa and Laval University developed a model using AI and over 40 years of data from the Canadian Drought Monitor, a database for drought conditions updated monthly by Agriculture and Agri-food Canada.
The AI model, which was developed by the team of researchers, then mapped the regions that will be most prone to drought over the rest of the 21st century.
The study was funded by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Quebec government.
Researchers developed four scenarios ranging in severity that focused on future precipitation and temperature levels throughout the country. Results from the model predict that Canada’s territories could be among the regions most susceptible to severe drought conditions over the next 75 years.
Hossein Bonakdari, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa and a lead researcher on the study, says even in the most positive scenarios, Canada’s northern regions could face severe droughts.
He says in these scenarios, slight increases in precipitation levels paled in comparison to the rate at which temperatures rose, suggesting higher levels of water evaporation and water scarcity in the North could become prevalent.
In the worst-case scenario presented in the study, the Yukon faces an annual average temperature rise of roughly 4.52 degrees by 2040. In the best case scenario, the temperature rise would be 4.03 degrees.
The Northwest Territories and Nunavut face potential annual temperature increases averaging 4.81 degrees and 6.21 degrees, respectively, in the best-case scenario in the same time frame. The worst-case scenario would see temperature increases averaging 5.65 degrees and 7.38 degrees.
Dana Tizya-Tramm is the director of Yukon-based tech startup Nadlii, which uses artificial intelligence in culturally sensitive ways with an aim to reflect First Nations agreements in modern systems.
Tizya-Tramm is also the former chief of the Vuntun Gwitchin First Nation, and as chief he oversaw the installation of a 2,000-panel solar farm in his community of Old Crow, Yukon. The First Nation also declared a climate change state of emergency during Tizya-Tramm’s tenure.
He says while the overall findings of the drought modelling study reflect what Canadians already know about increasing climate disasters in the country, he was surprised to learn that the North is expected to be most prone to drought in the years ahead. The results could be catastrophic, he says.
“You’re going to see entire ecosystems and even the land fall apart and slump,” Tizya-Tramm said.
He says there could be far-reaching consequences for Yukon First Nations, especially when it comes to treaty rights around things like salmon, and water.
More data points needed, researcher says
The study also suggests that among other effects, temperature increases could also lead to an overall decrease in soil moisture, which Bonakdari says could lead to an increase in wildfires, and stress on communities and infrastructure.
Yukon University hydrologist Benoit Turcotte says while the study’s results align with current climate change trends, he says the fact the study didn’t examine hydrological records from the Water Survey of Canada is a “missed opportunity.”
The Water Survey of Canada is a national body that is run by Environment and Climate Change Canada, which collects and analyzes water resource data throughout the country. The agency is the foremost body on water resource modelling in Canada, collecting real-time data from over 2,800 active monitoring sites in Canada, while also providing access to historic data from an additional 5,500 inactive sites.
Turcotte says that while precipitation and temperature are two parameters typically used to examine wet and dry conditions, it is difficult to define droughts without examining water levels and soil moisture.
Nonetheless, he says that the study is important as scientists continue to study the impacts of climate change.
He praises the importance of long-term studies, though cautions that scientists and engineers should be attempting to identify vulnerabilities in areas where catastrophic events have not happened yet.
Going forward, Bonakdari says he hopes to use ground sensors to better monitor droughts at ground level, as opposed to the current study which is largely reliant upon satellite data.
The study utilized data from 199 locations throughout Canada, and the University of Ottawa associate professor hopes to increase the number of data points as the research progresses.
Tizya-Tramm adds that studies like this one are important to accurately and visually inform communities of the implications of climate change.
“These models are extremely important, not only just for infrastructure and for government, but this is about entering the conscious of the Yukon community and our conversations.”
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