Josh Classen’s forecast: Some weekend showers and a brief break from the heat
The cooling trend continues in Edmonton and right across central and northern Alberta.
After peaking at a high of 36 C and a humidex of 39 in the city on Wednesday, we hit a high of 30 C on Thursday with no significant humidex reading.
So…it was still hot Thursday, but it FELT almost 10 C cooler than the previous day.
It won’t be as dramatic a drop today, but we’ll be back in the 26/27 C range for a high and that’s only a few degrees above the average high of 24.
AND…temperatures dropped below 20 C this morning for the first time since early Tuesday.
All of that means the heat warning is over and won’t be reinstated for a few days.
It’s likely we’ll be under another heat warning next week, though. (more on that in a moment)
We’re not anticipating any thunderstorms in the Edmonton region today.
However, we DO have some precipitation in the forecast for the weekend. It doesn’t look like a complete washout for both Saturday and Sunday, but both days have a reasonable chance of seeing at least SOME precip.
Here’s the rough estimate on timing:
Saturday: Moderate chance of some showers in the morning, then sunny breaks in the afternoon.
Higher probability of some scattered showers and thunderstorms in the area late Saturday (6-9pm’ish).
Sunday: High probability of showers in the morning (amount uncertain), then clearing through the afternoon hours.
The Upper Ridge that brought the heat and sunshine earlier this week is flattening out over the weekend.
Looking ahead to next week, another strong Upper Ridge (bubble of heat aloft) develops.
The strength and arrival time of that ridge is a bit uncertain, but it’s almost certainly coming.
Temperatures will sit in the low to mid 20s for daytime highs Saturday and Sunday and then climb back to the mid to upper 20s for Monday.
Heat warnings will likely return by Tuesday as we’ll be in the 29 to 34 degree range for afternoon highs from Tuesday-Saturday next week (with morning lows in the 16 to 20 range).
One last thing: The smoke outlook remains favourable for the Edmonton area and regions to the south. Wildfire smoke will continue to be a problem across parts of northern Alberta.
As the upper level wind pattern shifts with the flattening of the ridge, there was some concern that we’d see smoke start to drift toward central Alberta. But, the latest modeling keeps the thickest smoke locked up in the north at least through the end of the day Sunday.
Here’s the forecast for Edmonton and area:
Today – Sunny.
High: 27
Tonight – Mainly clear.
9pm: 24
Saturday – 40% chance of a shower in the morning, Sunny breaks in the afternoon.
60% chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm.
Morning Low: 15
Afternoon High: 24
Sunday – 60% chance of showers in the morning. Clearing in the afternoon.
Morning Low: 14
Afternoon High: 23
Monday – Partly cloudy.
Morning Low: 12
Afternoon High: 27
Tuesday – Partly cloudy.
Morning Low: 16
Afternoon High: 29
Wednesday – Mainly sunny.
Morning Low: 18
Afternoon High: 31
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