Winnipeg byelection a ‘toss-up’ between NDP, Conservatives, poli sci prof says

This month’s federal byelection in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood-Transcona is a “toss-up” between two candidates, a political science professor says.

The University of Manitoba’s Chris Adams said recent history shows that both NDP candidate Leila Dance and the Conservatives’ Colin Reynolds have a shot at winning the seat on Sept. 16.

Adams told 680 CJOB’s Connecting Winnipeg that the recent announcement by federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh that he was breaking his party’s agreement with the governing Liberals could play well in the east Winnipeg riding.

“There are a lot of union folks in Transcona who work at the CN shops and elsewhere who were unhappy with the binding arbitration decision (imposed on rail workers) by the Liberals, with support from the NPD because of the agreement.

“I think Jagmeet Singh, for the local area … it was good that he broke that agreement.”

Despite a small boost in potential NDP support from union workers, Adams said he doesn’t expect those recent events to affect the way other demographics vote.

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While the riding has been an NDP stronghold for most of its existence, Adams said it’s not a given that the party will win, as Conservatives have flipped the seat before.”

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“Lawrence Toet took it for one term back in 2011, Daniel Blaikie very barely took it back to the NDP in 2015.

“There isn’t a Blaikie running this time — it’s Leila Dance, head of the Transcona BIZ. She is running against Colin Reynolds, who is looking very strong for the Conservatives.”

The seat opened up after MP Daniel Blaikie, who had been elected in the two previous contests, vacated the seat to accept a position in Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew’s government.

Blaikie’s father Bill previously held the seat for two decades and was re-elected multiple times in the precursors to Elmwood-Transcona — Winnipeg-Birds Hill and Winnipeg-Transcona — setting a record for the longest continual service NDP parliamentarian in Canadian history.

In addition to Dance and Reynolds, other candidates in the byelection include Liberal Ian MacIntyre, Nicolas Geddert of the Green Party, Sarah Couture of the People’s Party of Canada and Canadian Future Party candidate Zbig Strycharz.

Advance voting ends at 9 p.m. Monday, and voters head to the polls Sept. 16.

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